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For example, “Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests?
” by Joel Katzav (Professor of Philosophy, Eindhoven University of Technology) in The scientific community has placed little emphasis on providing assessments of CMP quality in light of performance at severe tests.
Progress will come from better efforts to test the models, new insights from climate scientists, and the passage of time.
If, for example, a simulation’s agreement with data results from accommodation of the data, the agreement will not be unlikely, and therefore the data will not severely test the suitability of the model that generated the simulation for making any predictions.….
First, as we have seen, a severe testing assessment of CMP quality does not count simulation successes that result from the accommodation of data in favor of CMPs.
This series looks at the answers to these questions given us by generations of philosophers and scientists, which we have ignored. The clock is running for actions that might break the deadlock.
Eventually the weather will give us the answers, perhaps at ruinous cost.